Some thoughts on market caps, valuations, tokenomics and unlocks. I have noticed that even many sophisticated crypto twitter participants still don’t know how to use these values to inform their investments or trades. Will write some thoughts and just press publish when I get bored.
Thanks Cobie, I really enjoyed your write-up and agree that many crypto investors do not fully appreciate the nuances between circulating market cap and FDV. Out of curiosity, as someone involved with Lido, wouldn't you acknowledge their tokenomics fall into the exact circulating vs FDV trap you have written about in such detail above.
Hey Cobie, excellent article learned a lot. It will be nice if you can write an article on how you invest in projects early like Solana, it will be helpful for us newbies. Also, judging by your article do you think 2022 is going to be a Bear market or are we already in a bear market?
A and B projects both have a large unlock coming. A project unlocks more for investors and B unlocks more for the team. Whether project will suffer a worse dumping?
Hi Cobie. I don't get your example. Before hype the price was $0.1 with the market cap of $5m (which means there are 50m coin in circulation), after hype market cap 20x to $100m and coin price is 40x to $4.0 (which means there are 25m coin in circulation). This can only happen if you burn half of the coin in circulation. I know that it is not wrong, but it make the example confusing unnecessarily.
if anyone likes free information and read this article till the end here a list of coins with low `market cap / fdv`:
('serum', 0.013112073750009463)
('oxygen', 0.020236146898887933)
('merit-circle', 0.042592000026492556)
('bonfida', 0.04908680262896768)
('star-atlas', 0.060000000065409904)
('illuvium', 0.06347760580886667)
A must read for newcomers. Its unbelieavable that some people "invest" in projects without having in consideration everything exposed here.
But the worse part is that even having no clue, some of them still will make fucking lots of money.
Thanks for being real Sir, proly 95% of CT are actors.
Thanks Cobie, I really enjoyed your write-up and agree that many crypto investors do not fully appreciate the nuances between circulating market cap and FDV. Out of curiosity, as someone involved with Lido, wouldn't you acknowledge their tokenomics fall into the exact circulating vs FDV trap you have written about in such detail above.
Hey Cobie, excellent article learned a lot. It will be nice if you can write an article on how you invest in projects early like Solana, it will be helpful for us newbies. Also, judging by your article do you think 2022 is going to be a Bear market or are we already in a bear market?
Dumb question - where can you look up unlock schedules? Is that info generally public for larger projects?
Best charts shared on CT this year
bullish unlock from bearish market;
bearish unlock from bull market;
The unlock matters or the market matters?
And imagine another scenario:
A and B projects both have a large unlock coming. A project unlocks more for investors and B unlocks more for the team. Whether project will suffer a worse dumping?
The unlock is also a chips game.
听君一席话
I've been wanting to get more involved in the crypto market but seeing markets I do not understand really puts me off. This is a great starting point.
Nice read, thank you.
Seems someone has taken this content and passed as their own? https://mirror.xyz/dongdo.eth/bLImcK8ViJFVCctuSaXpKCUd93J66hbklH6XzSIolCk
Your substack is My Discovery Of The Year. Thank u
How do I get on the OTC lists for small caps?
thanks
Hi Cobie. I don't get your example. Before hype the price was $0.1 with the market cap of $5m (which means there are 50m coin in circulation), after hype market cap 20x to $100m and coin price is 40x to $4.0 (which means there are 25m coin in circulation). This can only happen if you burn half of the coin in circulation. I know that it is not wrong, but it make the example confusing unnecessarily.