New entrants in the crypto community look to crypto “veterans” hoping for near-deterministic directional insight into these perplexing markets. So, in this post, I will show you how to see the future. Seeing the future Successful crypto veterans know that crypto trading is a probabilistic outcomes business. Probabilistic thinking is basically just trying to estimate the likelihood of a specific future outcome becoming reality.
I would think the "Kelly Criterion" is a good formula to use to size your bets. So in your first example: with these assumptions, there's a 95% chance of making +86% (0.45*80 + 0.5 * 100), and 5% of making -20%, so using the Kelly Criterion, you'd bet 469% of your portfolio (0.95/0.2 - 0.05/0.86). Does that make sense, or am I being stupid? 😂 Fits with what SBF is saying.
Thanks for this article Cobie. I applied your ideas to a trade idea and managed to 2x my portfolio. Applied similar thinking on whether to stay in the trade or not and got 47/53 split. Guess I'll just have to flip a coin. Cheers mate!!! Keep writing
Ser, really appreciate for ur articles. I'm college student in China. Can I translate ur articles into Chinese? I want share them to more people in Chinese community. Mainly I will pulish them on Twitter using thread and for the long ones I will publish in Mirror. And of courese, I will not take any profit from translating and the credits are all yours. Just feeling have to do something in the coming Bear Market...
Cobie the philosopher
all hail cobie the savior of my portfolio
Best writing on trading/investing in crypto I have yet to run across.
Man I was preparing to Binge read on these posts tonight, and then found only three, was bummed, but now this appears : )
Any others posters like this anyone can recommend? I have read messari, so these type posts or anything messari like would be awesome. thanks
What If: Jack Kerouac had been born 2-3 decades later, survived psychedelics, and studied / traded the markets.
Great read thanks for sharing
What's EV (from SBF's tweet)?
I would think the "Kelly Criterion" is a good formula to use to size your bets. So in your first example: with these assumptions, there's a 95% chance of making +86% (0.45*80 + 0.5 * 100), and 5% of making -20%, so using the Kelly Criterion, you'd bet 469% of your portfolio (0.95/0.2 - 0.05/0.86). Does that make sense, or am I being stupid? 😂 Fits with what SBF is saying.
Thanks for the past 3 post Cobie! Great stuff and best subscription I made this year :)
Lol, Reading SBF's opinion now is just hilarious and sad
Oh the irony with that last screenshot lmao
Very informative
I re-read this often.
Nice read, thanks for sharing
Wait Cobie posts useful stuff?
Thanks for this article Cobie. I applied your ideas to a trade idea and managed to 2x my portfolio. Applied similar thinking on whether to stay in the trade or not and got 47/53 split. Guess I'll just have to flip a coin. Cheers mate!!! Keep writing
Ser, really appreciate for ur articles. I'm college student in China. Can I translate ur articles into Chinese? I want share them to more people in Chinese community. Mainly I will pulish them on Twitter using thread and for the long ones I will publish in Mirror. And of courese, I will not take any profit from translating and the credits are all yours. Just feeling have to do something in the coming Bear Market...
This is my twitter: https://twitter.com/ruiRay6
Thank u ser!