46 Comments
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Fintwit's avatar

Cobie the philosopher

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Dr Diane Reynolds's avatar

Idk man. I had P=1 that I would have another one of these to read during my morning dump today, but my inbox is empty. I have attention to give, and no one to take it.

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itwasntme's avatar

all hail cobie the savior of my portfolio

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AB Vortex's avatar

Love Brooooo Love Love Love

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CryptoMartan's avatar

Best writing on trading/investing in crypto I have yet to run across.

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Elated Pixel's avatar

What If: Jack Kerouac had been born 2-3 decades later, survived psychedelics, and studied / traded the markets.

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Cripto Willy's avatar

Lol, Reading SBF's opinion now is just hilarious and sad

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Yianni's avatar

What's EV (from SBF's tweet)?

I would think the "Kelly Criterion" is a good formula to use to size your bets. So in your first example: with these assumptions, there's a 95% chance of making +86% (0.45*80 + 0.5 * 100), and 5% of making -20%, so using the Kelly Criterion, you'd bet 469% of your portfolio (0.95/0.2 - 0.05/0.86). Does that make sense, or am I being stupid? 😂 Fits with what SBF is saying.

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Richard L. Johnson's avatar

Expected Value. And yes the Kelly criterion is a good tool to use. Your example follows, one would have levered up and be set.

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CryptoNFT's avatar

Man I was preparing to Binge read on these posts tonight, and then found only three, was bummed, but now this appears : )

Any others posters like this anyone can recommend? I have read messari, so these type posts or anything messari like would be awesome. thanks

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Hugh's avatar

Great read thanks for sharing

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AllenCrypto's avatar

Thanks for the past 3 post Cobie! Great stuff and best subscription I made this year :)

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Kaiwen0x's avatar

biggest bear trap of our lives and Sam trapped us.

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Hugr0s's avatar

Oh the irony with that last screenshot lmao

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Coveyjames's avatar

Very informative

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Faraaz Nishtar 🦊's avatar

I re-read this often.

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samvimes's avatar

Nice read, thanks for sharing

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Amfk's avatar

Wait Cobie posts useful stuff?

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WeeMacandFries's avatar

Thanks for this article Cobie. I applied your ideas to a trade idea and managed to 2x my portfolio. Applied similar thinking on whether to stay in the trade or not and got 47/53 split. Guess I'll just have to flip a coin. Cheers mate!!! Keep writing

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