New entrants in the crypto community look to crypto “veterans” hoping for near-deterministic directional insight into these perplexing markets. So, in this post, I will show you how to see the future. Seeing the future Successful crypto veterans know that crypto trading is a probabilistic outcomes business. Probabilistic thinking is basically just trying to estimate the likelihood of a specific future outcome becoming reality.
I would think the "Kelly Criterion" is a good formula to use to size your bets. So in your first example: with these assumptions, there's a 95% chance of making +86% (0.45*80 + 0.5 * 100), and 5% of making -20%, so using the Kelly Criterion, you'd bet 469% of your portfolio (0.95/0.2 - 0.05/0.86). Does that make sense, or am I being stupid? 😂 Fits with what SBF is saying.
Thanks for this article Cobie. I applied your ideas to a trade idea and managed to 2x my portfolio. Applied similar thinking on whether to stay in the trade or not and got 47/53 split. Guess I'll just have to flip a coin. Cheers mate!!! Keep writing
Cobie the philosopher
all hail cobie the savior of my portfolio
Best writing on trading/investing in crypto I have yet to run across.
Man I was preparing to Binge read on these posts tonight, and then found only three, was bummed, but now this appears : )
Any others posters like this anyone can recommend? I have read messari, so these type posts or anything messari like would be awesome. thanks
What If: Jack Kerouac had been born 2-3 decades later, survived psychedelics, and studied / traded the markets.
Lol, Reading SBF's opinion now is just hilarious and sad
What's EV (from SBF's tweet)?
I would think the "Kelly Criterion" is a good formula to use to size your bets. So in your first example: with these assumptions, there's a 95% chance of making +86% (0.45*80 + 0.5 * 100), and 5% of making -20%, so using the Kelly Criterion, you'd bet 469% of your portfolio (0.95/0.2 - 0.05/0.86). Does that make sense, or am I being stupid? 😂 Fits with what SBF is saying.
Great read thanks for sharing
Thanks for the past 3 post Cobie! Great stuff and best subscription I made this year :)
biggest bear trap of our lives and Sam trapped us.
Oh the irony with that last screenshot lmao
Very informative
I re-read this often.
Nice read, thanks for sharing
Wait Cobie posts useful stuff?
Thanks for this article Cobie. I applied your ideas to a trade idea and managed to 2x my portfolio. Applied similar thinking on whether to stay in the trade or not and got 47/53 split. Guess I'll just have to flip a coin. Cheers mate!!! Keep writing